First of all I want to wish everyone the best in 2016, and most importantly great trades!
I think the new year is a good time to review my websites and on going projects. So while I could not put too much time into it during the holidays I managed to introduced a few changes I wanted to do for a long time.
2015: a quick review
- US Trend did pretty well with a 10% gain versus a flat SPY, first half of the year was amazing with almost 30% gains, things started to fall apart in the summer but it did recover well after that.
- CAD Trend did OK (2% loss) compared to the TSX(11% loss).
- US Swing had a crappy 6% loss mostly due to bad timing and lack of diversification.
- CAD Swing had a great 12% gain mostly due to good timing and lack of diversification.
- All Weather was all over the place during the year, mostly between 0 and 20% gains but ended flat.
- US Enhanced Indexing ETF had a perfect storm of bad timing due to the lagging indicators it uses and lost 8%.
- CAD Enhanced Indexing ETF gained 12% most of it coming from a weak CAD and a strong USD.
As you probably can guess by looking at this blog, working on the cosmetic side of things is not something I want to spend too much time on. I did however change the way the Current Positions are presented by removing the (mostly) useless pie charts and replacing them by a rolling 1 year performance chart. I also renamed the “Stock Picks” to a more neutral “Swing Trade Candidates” and will try to add more information about what these trade ideas are about in order to reduce the hate mail I get from people married to their stocks.
Swing and All Weather Portfolios OUT, Swing Trade Candidates IN!
I really like my swing trade ideas, I can make money by using them. But when they are presented in a Portfolio with only 4 positions and with all trade executions based on the next day price at close time they are too often off. The All Weather Portfolio trading leveraged ETFs was using similar algorithms and had the same flaws. So instead of presenting something that is not really working I’d rather improve on the Swing Trade Candidates, which is a list of stocks that are overbought or oversold on a 1-10 days scale. I’m working on providing entry prices and target/stop levels that make sense. These Swing Trade Candidates are for stocks as well as index ETFs. I am currently working on it so what you see as of today is a work in progress.
US Trend and CAD Trend
I like these, they have a low transaction count and perform relatively well no matter what data-set I throw at them, I just want them to be a bit more diversified so they will now have 15 positions instead of 10.
I’m not sure in what order but I want to work on:
- Automated real time swing trades.
- A Growth portfolio.
- An Income portfolio.